What is a Population Policy?
A population policy outlines strategies that will increase the likelihood that a country continues to have a population size and balanced age structure to achieve its economic, social and cultural development goals. A population policy is planning tool for the future.
What is the objective of the proposed Barbados Population Policy?
The main objective of the Population Policy is to promote sustainable and inclusive development and good quality of life for Barbadians and residentswithout compromising environmental sustainability and the ability of future generations to meet their needs.
How was it developed?
The National Population Commission was established by the Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs and Investment in 2019 to undertake 2 tasks:
To prepare a Population Situational Analysis (PSA) report which analysed the causes and some of the consequences of the trends in population size and how that population was distributed by age groups. To do that, the Commission looked at birth, death and migration rates since 1960. The Commission was also asked to make projections on the size of population over the next 20-30 years if these trends continued.
The Commission was also asked to draft a Population Policy which provided recommendations to respond to population-related challenges analysed in the PSA to achieving our shared aspirations of a fair and decent quality life for all, where there are adequate resources to care for families and communities, and where the state plays its leadership role in maintaining quality services, adequate infrastructure and a clean and green environment.
This Policy was informed by the PSA and by a series of consultations with a wide cross-section of stakeholder groups.
The Population Commission is comprised of 10 persons from a range of backgrounds, including physical planning, environmental management, cultural development, public health, human rights, demography, economics, social policy research, and public sector planning.
Why does Barbados need a population policy? Is there a problem?
The total population in Barbados has grown by 24% in the last 60 years. Since 1960, birth and fertility rates have consistently fallen and fertility rates have dipped below replacement since 1980. Barbadians have been concerned about managing the size of the population so that there are resources to provide decent education and health care, reduce poverty and provide opportunities to the population for personal development. We are also concerned about environmental deterioration and good management of natural resources such as water.
Since the 1960s Barbados has had a consistent decrease in fertility rates. The total fertility rate (the average number of live births per woman in the reproductive age groups) declined from 4.3 in 1960 to 1.8 in 2017.
This is below what is defined as the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 which is rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration. If fertility rates were maintained at 2.1 since 1980, in 2020 the population would have been 360,000 instead of the current estimated size of around 289,000. The census is ongoing this year and will provide more accurate data soon.
The PSA also documents increases in persons over 65 because of declining death rates because of improvements in health outcomes.
Migration via CSME has not significantly increased the population of working-age.
In the main, the Commission projects that with no interventions and trends remaining consistent, Barbados will have a quarter of its population over 60 years by 2025, and a third over 60 by 2050.
Population aging has complex social and economic implications. These may include:
- an eventual decline in those of working-age and possibly workforce shortages as retirees outnumber new entrants to the workforce;
- Decline in government revenue derived from income and consumption tax measures
- Increased care responsibilities not only for family members, but also for the state through social security and social protection programmes.
On the other hand, controlling the size of the population has the benefits of reducing the human footprint on the environment including through reduction in waste, demand for scarce water and maintaining a level of green spaces needed for sustaining ecological management.
How does the Policy seek to achieve the main objective?
The policy outlines recommendations that will:
- Maintain a Population Size and structure to Sustain Adequate Levels of Social Care, Productivity and Labour Force Participation for Inclusive and Sustainable Development
- for Personal Development and
- Integrated Settlement Development and Safeguard the Ecological Balance
What does the Policy say about how a population size and structure can be maintained to contribute towards Barbados meetings its goals for Inclusive and Sustainable Development?
There are a mix of approaches to maintain a population size to make sure that we can take care of each other and meet labour force needs for development. The proposed policy recommends that population dynamism through careful growth in size, especially those of working age, can be attained over a 30-year period mostly through managed migration.
In addition to CSME which is already in place, the draft policy recommends managed migration which is a careful approach to attracting persons to come to Barbados to live and work in areas where skills and expertise are needed. This should be being closely monitored to ensure that migrants are integrated in an orderly and fair manner and that Barbadians are not displaced from the labour market or otherwise disadvantaged.
The Commission also recommends that in determining the numbers to be attracted to Barbados, it will be important to ensure that that the infrastructure is in place for water availability, housing, solid waste management systems, public utilities, transportation systems and health and educational services.
The draft Policy also makes recommendations on how Barbadians living elsewhere can be encouraged to return home at (permanently or through taking advantage of remote working arrangements) to contribute to the vitality of our country.
If Barbados needs more people, what recommendations does the Policy make about how many?
There is no optimal population size outside of a national development strategy though some factors ought to be considered in determining desired population size increases. The main consideration is sustainability. In defining optimal population size as one that is sustainable, account must be taken of resources, preservation of biodiversity, environmental and infrastructural carrying capacity, labour force needs, the care economy, support for cultural and technological creativity and state capacity to provide basic services.
The Commission recommends an incremental approach to population growth over the period 2021-2050 to give Barbados the population size it would have had if the 2.1 fertility rate was maintained.
Does the Policy advocate women having more children?
The Population Policy does not advocate for people to have more children. But rather it recommends a framework to support those who may wish to have children but are unable to do so because of financial, social or fertility issues. Recommendations address the barriers to childbearing for those who would like children and/or are considering their options.
How can Barbados accommodate more people if so many young people are already unemployed?
Alongside measures that aim to meet the immediate labour force needs, the policy addresses the high proportions of youth populations that continue to be not in employment, education, or training.
Ensuring that young people leave the education system with self-esteem, accomplishments, capabilities and a sense of purpose within their communities is critical to their engagement in the economy in ways that contribute to the society and further their personal development goals. Education reform is needed to expand from the post-colonial preoccupation with certification at all stages of schooling and re-oriented to foster confidence, critical thinking, empathy and life skills needed for flexibility and resilience. Young people should be better prepared for the work world and community participation through the development of a diversity of capabilities and interests.
The Policy also recognises that there are sectors of the economy where skilled labour is needed, such as in the health sectors and makes recommendations to improve the capacity and proficiency of the labour force with access to expanded economic opportunities.
How do we balance population growth and environmental management?
Notwithstanding the stabilization in population growth, there has been a significant increase in the conversion of agricultural land to fulfil residential and commercial purposes. That along with the diversion from traditional food production practices has increased the country’s dependence on food imports, which has negative implications for food security and national health outcomes. The policy recommends reconciling Population Redistribution, Land Use and Settlement Patterns, the efficient Management of Natural Resources and the Environment; and strengthening Collective Resilience to the Impacts of a Changing Climate.
To download the Draft Barbados Population Policy, the Executive Summary on the Draft Barbados Population Policy and these FAQs, you may click here.