Residents across Barbados are being urged to continue being in a state of readiness as predictions for storms and hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season has increased.
On August 10, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) increased its predictions for an above-normal season from 30 to 60 percent. Predictions are now calling for 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 11 will become hurricanes and out of that 6 to 11, the possibility of two to five major hurricanes.
Predictions for a normal season decreased from 30 to 25 per cent, and a below-normal season from 40 to 15 per cent.
In light of this change in predictions, Deputy Director of the Barbados Meteorological Services (MET Office), Brian Murray, is urging residents to continue in a state of preparedness at all times as the peak of the season, late August to early September, approaches.
In fact, he noted that the MET Office was currently monitoring three areas of interest in the Atlantic but noted that they posed no direct threat to Barbados at this time.
“These systems will not affect us directly, but when they pass to the northeast of us, we can expect lighter winds, very hot conditions and localised convention,” he said.
However, Mr. Murray urged the public to download the MET Office’s BMS Insight App from the Google Play Store or visit their website at www.barbadosweather.org for updates. In addition, they should also continue listening to reputable media sources for updates during this time.
The Deputy Director explained the increased predictions for the season were a result of the record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those, he said, were likely to counterbalance the limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event.
“Even though the El Niño is present, conditions are slow to develop, and climate scientists are forecasting that these impacts may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season,” he said.
Mr. Murray noted that during an El Niño event, there is usually a big difference in the direction and speed of the winds at different levels of the atmosphere, which is known as wind shear. However, due to the very warm waters of the Tropical Atlantic, this will result in stronger tropical wave activity in conjunction with an increase in the presence of low-level centres forming in the monsoon trough.